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The 6 Major Predictors You’re Heading for a Crash

February 1, 2010


Over a three-year timeframe, driver data was gathered and analyzed to determine future crash probability. A total of 540,750 drivers were researched, based on their past violation history. The results of this research provided the foundation for the Markel High-Risk Driver Crash Likelihood Chart—a chart outlining the likelihood that a driver will be involved in a crash in the next 12 months, based on type of past violation.

According to the Markel High-Risk Driver Crash Likelihood Chart, the following are the Top 6 Predictors You’re Heading for a Crash in the Next 12 Months: 

  1. A reckless driving violation – 325% 
  2. An improper turn violation – 105% 
  3. Improper/erratic lane change violation – 100% 
  4. Failure to yield ‘right of way’ violation – 97% 
  5. Failure to keep in proper lane violation – 91% 
  6. A past crash – 87%

If any of your drivers have these types of violations on their record, you can use this chart as an effective way to proactively address these drivers and help avoid any future crashes.


HIGH RISK DRIVER
Crash Likelihood Chart

   High Risk Driver Category 1

Crash Likelihood in
Next 12 Months
Increases:

   • A Reckless Driving Violation

325%

   High Risk Driver Category 2 Crash Likelihood in
Next 12 Months
Increases:
   • An Improper Turn Violation 

105% 

   • Improper/Erratic Lane Change Violation

100% 

   • Failure to Yield ”Right of Way” Violation

97%

   • Failure to Keep in Proper Lane Violation

91%

   • A Past Crash

87%

   High Risk Driver Category 3 Crash Likelihood in
Next 12 Months
Increases:
   • Driving too Fast for Conditions Violation

62% 

   • Failure to Use/Improper Signal Violation 

62% 

   • False or No Log Book Violation 

56% 

   • Any Conviction

56% 

   • Speeding Violation 
     (more than 15mph over speed limit) 

56%

   • Disqualified Driver Violation 

51%

   • Following Too Closely Violation

50% 

   • Hours of Service Violation

41% 

   • Any Moving Violation

41%

   • Speeding Violation

35%

   • Failure to Obey Traffic Control Device Violation

30%

   • Improper Passing Violation

25%

   • Any OOS Violation

16%




To learn more about our High-Risk Driver Training Program, contact your Markel Safety Advisor or call 1-888-MARKEL-1 (627-5351).